Huitong.com November 28th - Monday (November 28) there are not many important economic data that will affect the market trend, you can pay attention to the US Dallas Fed business activity index in November. However, it is important to focus on the evening of Beijing time, when ECB President Mario Draghi made an introductory statement at the quarterly hearing of the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee. The market may peek into whether the Draghi statement will reveal clues about the future monetary policy of the European Central Bank.
According to Huitong Netease Huitong market software, the overall volatility of the foreign exchange market at the beginning of the week was relatively calm. The euro was quoted at 1.0596 against the US dollar, the US dollar against the Japanese yen at 112.88, and the British pound against the US dollar at 1.2464. According to the Russian side, the Russian delegation does not participate in the oil exporters conference, but has confidence in reaching an agreement. On Sunday, Saudi oil captain Falih seems to show that Saudi Arabia’s willingness to cut production is not strong. Oil prices opened lower on Monday, with US oil opening at around US$0.70 and now at US$45.26/barrel. The low opening of the oil is slightly less than US$0.3, which is now around US$47.45/barrel.
This week, the market will focus on three things, namely: 1 November 30 (Wednesday) OPEC 171st semi-annual meeting; 2 December 2 (Friday) US November non-farm employment report (change in employment, Unemployment rate); 3 December 4 (Sunday) Italian referendum on constitutional reform. 
Last week's review:
1 Global stock markets showed optimism last week: China, the United States, Japan and other major stock indexes have all hit a high level for a period of time;
The US dollar index hit a nearly 14-month high on Monday;
3 Crude oil prices fell back last week, waiting for this week's OPEC semi-annual crude oil conference;
4 The RMB has hit a new low of more than 8 years against the US dollar;
5 A series of economic data released by the United States last week performed well;
6 The Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the November monetary policy meeting, raising interest rates in December or “arrows are already in the lineâ€;
7 The OPEC crude oil conference is just around the corner. Although the parties are optimistic about reaching a frozen production agreement, there are still variables;
8 Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect will open on December 5.
[List of major global markets]
stock market
China's stock market Shanghai Composite Index hit a new 11-month high on November 25. Analysts pointed out that there was a sharp decline in the early stock index, but after the support of the heavyweight stocks, the market rose from the downside; and affected by the information disclosure requirements of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's revised high-transfer plan, the adjustment pressure of the small and medium-cap stocks was further increased. Big.
The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.62% to 3261.94 points; Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.63% to 11036.53 points; the ChiNext Index rose 0.97% to 2167.53 points. The two cities traded 612 billion yuan, up from 633.3 billion last day. Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose more than 2%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.35%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.44%.
The Australian stock market index S&P/ASX200 index closed up 0.38% on Friday, at 5505.70 points, and rose 2.77% in a week, ending two consecutive weeks. Taiwan's stock market closed up 0.1% on Friday, at 9190.07 points, and rose 1.7% in a week. The Japanese stock market Nikkei 225 index closed at seven consecutive days on Friday, continuing the longest consecutive period since November 2015, rising 0.26% to 18,381.22 points; a cumulative increase of 2.3% a week, the third consecutive week of gains.
The three major European stock indexes rose collectively and also closed up last week. The UK's FTSE 100 index closed up 0.13% to 6838.08 points, up 0.92% over the week; Germany's DAX 30 index closed up 0.03% to 10692.36 points, up 0.26% in one week; France's CAC 40 index closed up 0.16% at 4549.91 Point, a week rose 1.01%.
The three major US stock indexes rose collectively and reached a record high, and they all closed up in a week. The Dow Jones index closed up 63.48 points or 0.33% to 19,146.66 points, up 1.38% for the week; the S&P 500 index closed up 7.89 points or 0.36%, at 2122.61 points, up 1.33% over the week; the Nasdaq index closed up 16.55 Point or 0.31%, reported 5,397.23 points, a rise of 1.42% a week.
futures
US WTI January crude oil futures closed down 1.90 US dollars or 3.96%, to 46.06 US dollars / barrel, earlier hit a low of 45.91 US dollars / barrel since November 18. Brent January crude oil futures closed down 1.76 US dollars or 3.59%, reported 47.24 US dollars / barrel, a week rose 0.8%.
COMEX December gold futures closed down 9.90 US dollars or 0.8%, to 1179.50 US dollars / ounce, the lowest closing price since February, a 2.4% decline in a week.
London's base metals have risen and fallen, and collectively closed up in a week. LME zinc closed up 3.5% at $2,819/ton, hitting a new high since March 6, 2008, up 10.98% in a week, the biggest weekly gain since February 2010, making 2016's increase to 77 %. LME lead closed up 6.7%, the largest single-day gain in the past five years, reported 2391.50 US dollars / ton, hit a new high since February 2013, a rise of 11.75% a week. LME copper closed up 0.2% to $5,879/ton, up 8.41% over the week. LME aluminum fell 0.8% to $1,757/ton, up 3.72% over the week. LME nickel closed down 0.1% to $11,570/ton, up 6.69% in a week. LME tin fell 2.0% to $20,925/ton, up 3.59% in a week.
According to the quotes from Huitong Finance and Economics, the domestic commodity futures market generally rose, and the black system led the gains. Coke, coking coal and thermal coal closed up by 3.25%, 2.38% and 0.66% respectively. Iron ore closed up 2.68%. Soybean meal, rapeseed meal and soybeans rose by 0.54%, 1.84% and 0.34%, respectively. Soybean oil, vegetable oil and palm oil rose 0.06%, 0.83% and 0.10%, respectively.
Foreign exchange
The US dollar index fell 0.3% to 101.42, hitting a 14-month high in the previous trading day.
USD/JPY fell 0.2% to 113.11 after hitting an eight-month high of 113.90, but still rose 2% a week.
The euro rose 0.5% against the dollar to 1.0601, and fell to a low of 1.0518 since March 2015.
The Fed’s interest rate hike expects that the US president’s trade protectionist stance has severely frustrated emerging market stocks and currencies.
The Turkish lira hit a record low.
The onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9151 on Friday at 16:30, up 38 basis points from the previous trading day. On the last trading day of last week, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was adjusted to 83 basis points to 6.9168, which was lowered for the third consecutive day and hit a new low of more than 8 years.
Bond
US 10-year benchmark bond yields rose 0.75 basis points to 2.3572%, up 2.04 basis points in a week, rising for the third consecutive week. The yield on the US dollar bond fell 2.18 basis points to 1.92%, up 4.90 basis points in a week. The five-year US bond yield fell 2.31 basis points to 1.24%, up 3.79 basis points a week. The yield on the 30-year US Treasury fell 2.92 basis points to 3.0045%, down 2.51 basis points in a week.
[International Finance News]
Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources, Farifhe said on Sunday that he believes that even if the oil-producing countries do not intervene, the oil market will be able to balance itself in 2017, so it is reasonable to maintain the status quo. Farich also said that the demand level in 2017 is expected to be encouraging and the market will reach a balance, even if OPEC does not intervene. He said, but OPEC intervention is to promote balance and speed up market recovery; demand for Saudi crude oil is still high and very stable.
Russian oil industry sources reported that the Russian delegation will not participate in the oil exporters conference held on November 28.
In the statement, the Russian Ministry of Energy quoted Minister Alexander Novak as saying that Russia supports the position that OPEC members need to reach an internal consensus and then non-OPEC members can participate in the agreement. Russia will continue to negotiate production agreements with OPEC and remains optimistic about reaching an agreement.
The Iranian Ministry of Oil’s official, who asked not to be named, said that Algerian Energy Minister Boutarfa had proposed to OPEC’s oil minister Zangane to issue OPEC’s daily production cuts of 1.1 million barrels. Boutarfa also informed Zangane that OPEC proposed to reduce production in non-OPEC oil producing countries. 600,000 barrels per day. Zangane discussed the share of production reduction in each country. Iran will evaluate the proposal and will discuss it further at the Vienna meeting on November 30. Zangane has not commented on Iran’s position to cut its production, but he is optimistic about the November 30 meeting. Boutarfa said that it hopes to reduce production capacity to help oil prices rise to 55-60 US dollars / barrel; if there is no agreement at the Vienna meeting next week, oil prices may still be below the current level of 50 US dollars / barrel.
Ecuadorian Foreign Minister Guillaume Long said in an e-mail on Saturday that he is optimistic that the OPEC meeting next week will reach a consensus on seeking stable crude oil prices. The foreign minister said that from a global perspective, no one expects oil prices to soar to $100-150/barrel, but hope that prices will remain stable and fair among oil-producing countries. Long will represent Ecuador at this OPEC meeting.
Italian Finance Minister Paduo An said that the Italian national constitutional referendum, which will be held on December 4th, will not make the country once again in the center of the debt storm as it did in 2011. As of now, the results of the poll show that people who support “veto†are far ahead.
Ren Zhengping of Founder Securities said that Trump’s economic policy is mainly infrastructure, tax cuts and interest rate hikes. These policies are good factors for the global capital market, but there may be some pressure factors later.
Wisconsin, the important swing state in the United States, will reopen the first presidential election in the state's history. Trump has won more than 20,000 votes in the state. US President-elect Trump was very dissatisfied with the recalculation of the Wisconsin ballot on Saturday, saying the move was a conspiracy, and in a statement weighing the votes was only the guise of the Greens to raise funds. The current Green Party presidential candidate Stan has raised more than $5 million online. For the Hillary team to join the recount, the Trump expressed helplessness.
Many of the cabinet members that Trump is considering are invited to be billionaires. The value of the new government may be as high as $35 billion, which is higher than the GDP of 100 countries in 2015, equivalent to a year's output of 7.72 million people in the Republic of the Congo.
The South Korean people held another protest rally on November 26, demanding that President Park Geun-hye be responsible for the "pro-government affairs." According to the latest polls, Park Geun-hye’s support rate has continued to decline to 4%, the lowest for the previous presidents.
Bank of England Governor Carney is working on a Brexit buffer to allow British companies to obtain at least two years of EU single market eligibility after leaving the UK in the UK; according to the plan, companies can follow current economic and trade rules. Operating until 2021. The Bank of England is currently not commenting on this.
On November 26, the former top leader of Cuba, Fidel Castro, died at the age of 90.
[Domestic financial news]
Domestic macro
Yi Gang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, said that the recent depreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar, but the magnitude is relatively small compared to most non-US currencies, and the renminbi still exhibits a stable and strong currency character in the global monetary system. In the future, the RMB exchange rate will be fully conditional and will remain basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level; China’s foreign exchange reserves are sufficient; China is an open economy, and capital is in and out is normal, as China’s economy recovers, institutional reforms and business The environment will improve and the capital going out will come back.
China's industrial profit growth in January-October rose steadily. Dr. He Ping from the Industry Department of the National Bureau of Statistics said that from January to October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 8.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that in January-September. Among them, the profit in October increased by 9.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2.1 percentage points faster than that in September. First, the enterprise's efficiency is better stabilized; second, the supply-side structural reforms continue to show results; third, sales are accelerating, prices are rising, and profit growth is picking up.
Zhu Baoliang, director of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center, said that although the new growth momentum will continue to grow rapidly in 2017, its proportion in the economy is still less than 20%. It is difficult to replace the role of traditional manufacturing industries such as real estate and automobiles. The inertia slipped to around 6.5%.
Peng Sen, deputy director of the NPC Financial and Economic Committee, said that under the economic downturn and low interest rate environment, monetary policy is facing a dilemma. Real estate and asset bubbles limit the further expansion of the currency. The real economic difficulties and the dislocation of funds are intertwined with virtual contradictions, and the potential risks of finance and debt rise. .
The National Development and Reform Commission will hold a symposium on December 1 to convene some large coal enterprises and related provincial industry management departments to exchange current coal economic operations, focusing on how to ensure the implementation of medium and long-term contracts and better implement the 276 working day system. Accelerate corporate mergers and acquisitions and increase industry concentration.
Xu Shaoshi, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the price of natural gas is "management of the middle and release of the two", and the introduction of the pipeline transportation price management method and the pricing cost supervision and examination method, 80% of the gas source price has been formed by the market.
Caixin said that in the context of the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the pressure of capital outflows, the central bank may consider incorporating risk management of cross-border RMB business into the MPA (Macro Prudential Evaluation System).
The “2016 PTA Futures Forum†hosted by Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was held in Suzhou recently. According to the meeting, Zhengshang will expand its opening to the outside world, and PTA futures are expected to introduce foreign investors.
Domestic stock market
China Settlement issued a new regulation on November 27, requiring the Hong Kong Stock Connect Clearing Margin to be collected by the settlement participant through the A-share self-operated settlement margin account of each settlement participant, and the standard of 200,000 RMB was paid. For the settlement participants participating in the Hong Kong Stock Connect business, the minimum limit for the self-operated settlement margin account is adjusted from RMB 200,000 to RMB 400,000.
Haitong Securities Yu Yugen believes that in 2017, A shares will gradually evolve from a shock city in 2016 to a bull market. It is recommended to use value stocks as the bottom position. The national reform is the main line of the year. At the same time, it is necessary to gradually pay attention to the growth stocks. In the second half of the year, we can add the stocks.
Anxin Securities Zhao Xianghuai said that Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect has little impact on the performance of domestic brokerage firms. After opening, it is equivalent to a group of financial products, which is of strategic significance to the long-term development of domestic brokerage firms. The impact of insurance placards on the valuation of insurance stocks is still positive, and the future volatility will continue.
In IPO queuing companies, the number of over-represented companies continues to decline. There are currently only 36 companies in the conference.
The industry believes that the core of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect lies in the transaction transit and liquidation, and the leading enterprises in the A-share market will be highly concerned. Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect is expected to bring about 130 billion yuan of incremental foreign investment for A-shares in one year.
The China Securities Journal reported that the major shareholders of listed companies have resorted to a new "secret weapon" - private equity exchangeable bonds to reduce cash. The private placement of exchangeable bonds is simple to approve, and the pledge rate is high. In the shortest time, it can help the major shareholders to lose one share.
Domestic property market
According to the overseas edition of the People’s Daily, China’s regulation of the property market is based on the overall benefit of China’s economic development. It cannot be understood unilaterally as a containment of the market mechanism; the foundation of the stable and healthy development of the real estate market is still very solid.
According to the new financial report, the decision-making level once again demanded that the house price rise be controlled, and that the house price in November should not be higher than the October level. If it rises again, it is not necessary to talk about it and directly account for the local government.
The Beijing Municipal Construction and Construction Committee said that the developer's self-sustaining period of “price limit bidding price†was misunderstood for 5 years, and the holding period was the same as the land transfer period, which was also 70 years.
Zhang Yuliang, chairman of Greenland Holdings, said that China's real estate future regions and enterprises will intensify differentiation, industry concentration will be further improved, and small and medium-sized enterprises will be phased out. It is expected that enterprises will be closed down 20%-30% annually.
Huijin market broadcast:
The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.62% to 3261.94 points, Shenzhen Securities Index rose 0.63% to 11036.53 points, the GEM index rose 0.97% to 2167.53 points, the Hang Seng Index closed 0.6% to 23407.05 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 63.48 points or 0.33%. At 19,146.66 points, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 16.55 points or 0.31% to 5,397.23 points, a rise of 1.42% over the week, crude oil fell 1.90 US dollars or 3.96%, to 46.06 US dollars / barrel, Brent crude oil fell 1.76 US dollars or 3.59 %, reported at $47.24/barrel, up 0.8% in one week, gold futures fell $9.90 or 0.8% to $1179.50 per ounce, and the dollar index fell 0.3% to 101.42.
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