[The reason why Abe said that it is impossible to renegotiate is that, in addition to the United States and Japan, among the other 10 TPP member states, there is already an idea to promote a TPP that excludes the United States]
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, 21, stand Agreement "losing America's" Trans-Pacific 601,099, buying Partnership "(TPP) does not make sense," Carter, US President-elect Trump video released by the content of his first 100 days, The first one said that the first day of the administration will "exit the TPP."
Obama does not give up TPP
Trump promised that it would be replaced by a "more equitable bilateral trade agreement," saying "this will bring jobs and employment opportunities to the United States." However, the TPP, a free trade arrangement that is considered a political legacy by the current President Barack Obama, does not necessarily end. As the US Trade Office representative, Freman and others, said earlier, the TPP did not die, but was in "purgatory."
In sharp contrast to Trump's statement, Obama, who attended the APEC Leaders Summit in Lima, Peru, contacted leaders of 11 other countries within the TPP framework to continue to push the agreement into force.
At the subsequent press conference, Obama said that this meeting has reaffirmed the commitment of the parties to the TPP, and all parties are very clear that they are willing to continue to push forward the TPP, "especially hope to promote with the United States. He also warned that the TPP lockout would "destroy our position in the region and undermine our ability to shape global trade rules in ways that reflect our interests and values."
Before Obama went to Lima, the strength of the US support for TPP also suggested that the Trump administration could take a new round of consultations on the TPP after taking office. US Republican Congressman Kevin Brady said his proposal to Trump is not to withdraw, and new negotiations can be made to "make TPP better."
Some TPP member leaders who participated in the APEC summit are also more inclined to think that Trump's previous opposition to the TPP is a campaign strategy. Over time, Trump may change his mind. Singapore, Australia and other countries said that they would give Trump some time. New Zealand Prime Minister John Key even joked that it would be better to use Trump-Pacific Partnership Agreement to make Trump change his mind.
How many FTAs ​​does the US have?
The United States has signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with 20 countries. Among the TPP members, the FTA already exists between the United States and Peru, Canada, Mexico, Chile, Australia, and Singapore. In the opinion of some analysts, enough FTA can also ensure the economic and trade interests of the United States. However, all of these FTAs ​​involve only 40% of the total bilateral trade in goods between the United States and the rest of the world, and are primarily transactions with Canada and Mexico.
Since the entry into force of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) of the United States and Mexico in 1994, the trade of the three countries has benefited a lot. The American Chamber of Commerce pointed out that about 6 million US jobs depend on trade with Mexico. American companies, especially automakers, are the biggest winners because of the cheap labor they have acquired from Mexico. An independent report published by the US Congress in 2015 found that NAFTA did not lead to the loss of a huge amount of jobs that critics fear.
During the campaign, Trump said more than once that he would renegotiate NAFTA, accusing the agreement of occupying jobs in the US “rust belt†(a once-famous, now declining central manufacturing town). For Trump's attitude, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau expressed his willingness to discuss NAFTA with the United States. The Mexican President Nieto said that he is willing to discuss some of the details, but will never allow renegotiation.
In addition, Trump also said that he will withdraw from the World Trade Organization (WTO). However, as much as 60% of bilateral trade in goods in the United States is conducted in countries with no bilateral FTA arrangements, and in order to enter these markets, WTO MFN tariffs are very important to US exporters. The Peterson Institute for International Economics in the United States has warned that the US "recession" will face three major risks: exporters lose an important global market access arrangement; the United States loses important trade dispute resolution mechanisms under the WTO; The leadership of the system is given to China.
In the bilateral trade agreement, Trump especially focused on the US and South Korea FTA. Trump believes that the US-South Korea FTA did not bring the expected 70,000 jobs, but instead caused 100,000 jobs to disappear; the United States has almost no increase in exports to South Korea, but South Korea’s exports to the United States have increased by more than $15 billion. South Korea’s Deputy Finance Minister Cui Xiangmu defended on the 15th, saying that since the agreement came into effect in 2012, it has increased the investment of Korean companies in the United States.
“This is a watershed moment...this means that these economies will face more regionalization,†said Frederic Neumann, co-director of HSBC Asia Economic Research, who says US companies are finding their market access to be declining. After the TPP collapse, Vietnam, Malaysia and Japan will become losers.
Imagine no US TPP
Japan is the country most worried about the prospects of the TPP and the party that is the hardest to push the agreement outside the United States.
Before Trump made a 100-day New Deal speech and announced his intention to withdraw from the TPP, Abe’s press conference in Buenos Aires, Argentina, aimed at Trump’s prospect of abandoning the TPP, saying that “the loss of the US TPP is meaningless. ". Abe specifically analyzed that this is the same as “impossible renegotiation, the fundamental balance of interests will be brokenâ€.
The reason why Abe said "impossible renegotiation" is that, in addition to the United States and Japan, the other 10 TPP members have already promoted the idea of ​​a TPP that excludes the United States.
However, under the original agreement, a TPP without the United States cannot be effective: according to the relevant provisions of the TPP, the TPP needs to be effective only if the GDP of the member country whose approval is effective exceeds 85% of the total. It accounts for 60% of its own, so if you want to make the TPP take effect outside the US, you must re-negotiate the current TPP agreement.
On the other hand, current TPP core promoters such as New Zealand and Australia have turned to support the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area (FTAAP) and support the advancement of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) negotiations.
It should be noted that during the APEC Leaders' Meeting in Lima, Peru, China and New Zealand jointly announced the official launch of the China-New Zealand FTA upgrade negotiations. The two sides agreed that the first round of negotiations will be held in the first half of 2017 and strive to reach an agreement as soon as possible. The scope of the upgrade negotiations will cover service trade, competition policy, e-commerce, agricultural cooperation, environment, technical trade barriers, customs procedures cooperation and trade facilitation, rules of origin and many other areas, which will promote the upgrade of China-New Zealand FTA to a higher level of trade. agreement.
At the same time, Peru also applied to join the RCEP before and after the APEC meeting, intending to become the first Latin American member. Previously, on January 21 this year, China and Peru signed the Memorandum of Understanding on the Upgrade of the China-Peru Free Trade Agreement between the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China and the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Tourism of the Republic of Peru, and announced the launch of a joint study on the upgrading of bilateral free trade agreements.
"China is the winner. Withdrawal from the TPP, the United States not only lost its economic influence but also lost its political influence in Asia." Neumann said that China can use its huge internal market to attract other economies closer together. Its running track.
However, whether Trump’s decision means that RCEP and FTAAP negotiations will gain a stronger momentum. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Yan Shuang said at a regular press conference on the 22nd that “the RCEP process is centered on ASEAN. For a long time, China and ASEAN and other relevant parties have been actively promoting RCEP negotiations. We are willing to continue to promote the negotiation process with all parties and strive for early and positive progress."
The RCEP was initiated by the 10 ASEAN countries and invited China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and India to participate in the establishment of a free trade agreement for the 16-nation unified market by reducing tariffs and non-tariff barriers. If it is completed, RCEP will cover about 3.5 billion people, and the total GDP will reach 23 trillion US dollars, accounting for 1/3 of the global total. The covered area will also become the world's largest free trade zone.
Leather Jewelry Box,Luxury Jewelry Box,Ring Boxes Set,Earring Boxes Set
Shenzhen Yi Ding Peng Packaging Design Co., Ltd. , https://www.szydppackages.com