This article Source: Yi De Jing Yinghui
1. Taiyuan Coking Enterprise
At present, the coal inventory in the coking plant is relatively low, and the demand for high-quality coke is still acceptable. The price of high-sulfur coke is larger than that of high-quality coke, but the limited production of steel mills in November has hit demand, so the whole market is not too optimistic recently, coke cost Support will be weakened. It is expected that coke prices will still have room to fall at the end of the month and in November.
(1) Capacity situation
The company has a coking capacity of 7.7 million tons, a total of 7 coal mines, and a total of 12.5 million tons of raw coal. The company has another steel mill that produces 2 million tons of threaded wire.
(2) Products and supplies
The main supply of coke is mainly state-owned steel mills, including Hebei Iron and Steel, Yangang, Anshan Iron and Steel, Benxi Steel, Hong Kong and other steel mills. State-owned enterprises are long-term cooperation, and railway transportation is convenient, but the payment mechanism is not as flexible as private enterprises. At present, the coke of the plant is mainly quasi-first-grade coke and high-sulfur coke, and the coke river steel quasi-one to the factory accepts 2,200 yuan.
(3) Production aspects
In production, the production of coke enterprises was normal before September 7th, and the total production was limited to 30% since September 8. From October 8th, the coking time will be extended by 36-48 hours, and the production will be limited to 3-5%.
Environmental protection: Taiyuan is one of the cities of 2+26. According to the document requirements, the production will be limited on October 1st. However, due to the report of a local coking, the local coking plants in Taiyuan started to limit production in advance on September 8. Government documents 20% is required, but the actual production is limited by 30%. During the nineteenth period, the production limit was aggravated, and the inspection personnel increased the frequency of inspections, and the range was relatively large, basically reaching 50%.
In terms of environmental protection equipment, the Taiyuan area has been covered with greenhouses, desulfurization and denitrification, and deep treatment of sewage. Basically, the environmental protection investment has been large this year, and there is no time requirement for CDQ. The environmental inspection measures mainly include checking the report, the time and quantity of the warehousing and storage, monitoring the sewage discharge, electricity consumption, the number of vehicles, and the time of pushing the coke.
(4) Raw materials
The coal of the plant is mainly used by itself, and another 10-20% of coking coal is used for external mining. The supply mainly comes from Shanxi. Under normal circumstances, the inventory of coking coal reserves for about 20 days is relatively moderate. Currently, about half a month, it is mainly the market down-control inventory. Covering the impact of the greenhouse on the site will guide the coking plant to store more cost-effective raw materials. The proportion of low-sulfur primary coking coal in the inventory is still small.
(5) Coke inventory
At present, the stock of coke in the factory is 4000-5000 tons. The coke production of less than one day can basically be considered as no stock. Under normal circumstances, the stock of coke enterprises is 7000-10000 tons. However, it is understood that the inventory of downstream steel enterprises has increased rapidly, and some steel mills in Shandong area are around 530,000 tons on October 24.
(6) Payment and funds
At present, the situation of remittances is relatively high, and the prepayments of steel mills have increased significantly compared with previous years. At present, the funds of Jiao enterprises are relatively abundant, and the asset-liability ratio is less than 60%.
(7) Logistics
Jiao enterprise has a special hot line, and most of the goods are transported by rail.
(8) Profit
The current average profit per ton of coke in Shanxi Jiaojiao is about 100 yuan (including chemical production). After the current price of coke falls, the coke enterprise may reach the edge of profit and loss.
2. Jinzhong area coal mine
After the holiday, as the coke price fell rapidly, the purchasing atmosphere of the coke enterprises fell, and the coal inventory level increased, and some pressure has already appeared. The price of clean coal in the early stage has been lowered by 30 yuan/ton. With the end of the "19th National Congress" production limit, coal supply is expected to increase, and the price of clean coal has further room to fall. Coal enterprises are slightly pessimistic about the market in this winter.
(1) Capacity
The mine has an annual production capacity of 900,000 tons, a mine depth of about 300 meters, and a coal washing plant capacity of 1.2 million tons. There are three large coal companies in the region with a total coal production capacity of approximately 12.5 million tons. The mine mainly produces high sulfur primary coke (S>2.5), accounting for about 70%; low sulfur and high ash primary coke (S0.6), accounting for about 30%. The products sold are mainly medium-sulfur primary coking coal after washing (S1.8-2.0, bonding >80, strength 65).
(2) Production situation
Affected by coal seam rupture, the coal production in the second half of last year and the first half of this year affected about 500,000 tons. The coking coal production in the first half of the year was about 40,000 tons. In the second half of this year, the coal mine resumed normal production, and the production plan was raised from November to December. It is estimated that the coking coal output will reach 90-95 million tons in 2017. At present, the daily output of raw coal is 4,700 tons, the clean coal is about 3,000 tons, and the washing rate is over 50%. During the “Nineteenth National Congress†period, due to the influence of the policy, the coal mine was shut down and production was expected to resume within one week after the meeting.
(3) Inventory situation
Under normal circumstances, coal mines are low in stock and even out of stock. However, after the holiday, the willingness to purchase the coke enterprises fell, and the coal enterprise inventory increased. The current clean coal inventory is about 20,000 tons.
(4) Availability
The coal mine mainly supplies steel mills in the northeast region and surrounding coke enterprises; Jiaozhou enterprises in East China; steel mills in Sichuan; and coal-fired power plants. The coal mine will also purchase some low-sulfur primary coking coal for washing, accounting for about 20-30%. At present, the coal mines are basically prepayments, and the payment is better.
(5) Environmental protection
Coal mines basically have no wastewater discharge and water resources are recycled. The raw materials and product greenhouses were completed around 2011, with an investment of about 30 million yuan, without environmental pressure. The coal mines in the surrounding areas require the construction of greenhouses before the end of October. However, it is understood that only about 40% of the coal washing plants have been completed. At present, the construction is completed and the construction is basically completed before the end of the year.
(6) Peripheral conditions
There are about 50 local independent coal washing plants, and about 30 are in normal production. In the previous peak period, there were about 147 local coal washing plants. Before and after 2015, a large number of coal washing plants withdrew due to market reasons.
(7) Production cost
According to different production, the production cost per unit of raw coal is between 220-270 yuan/ton, and the cost of clean coal washing is about 30 yuan/ton. The company has lower capital costs and better profitability. At the same time, the plant leases railway lines and has a shipping advantage.
(8) Warehouse receipt price
The company can make a warehouse receipt. At present, the standard coking coal factory cost of the local warehouse receipts is 1,170 yuan / ton (including tax), and the freight to the port of Shandong is 230-250 yuan / ton. The overall warehouse receipt price is around 1,300 yuan.
3. Xiaoyi area coking enterprise
The coking enterprises in Luliang area are concentrated, with a total production capacity of about 31 million tons. It is one of the most important coke production areas in Shanxi. Among them, there are 10 coking enterprises in Xiaoyi area, with a production capacity of about 15 million tons, accounting for about half of the city's coking capacity. Today, the 50% policy of the Luliang heating season is limited. Even if it is strictly implemented, it will take about one month to digest the current inventory of coking enterprises in Luliang area, and the coke production in Luliang area will increase to nearly 7 million tons. There are still coking indicators in hand and there are plans to continue production.
(1) Introduction to the company
The coking enterprise is located in Xiaoyi City, Lvliang, and has a coke production capacity of about 4.1 million tons (three coking plants). The products are mainly quasi-first-grade coke and high-sulfur coke. It also contains 7 coal mines with a total coal production capacity of 8 million tons. The main reason is fat coal; the company owns 15 million tons of coal washing plant, and some low-sulfur primary coking coal is used for washing and mixing.
(2) Environmental protection and limited production
The current operating rate of Jiao Enterprise is relatively stable and remains at a relatively high level. The operating rate of coke enterprises in the surrounding areas is also relatively high, with an overall situation of more than 85%. The supply of coke has not decreased recently. However, in recent days, the market rumors that the coking enterprises in Luliang area will limit production by 50%, and the implementation time is 2017-2018 heating season (about 4 months). Although there is no clear notice to announce it, it is expected that the possibility of policy landing will be relatively large.
Assuming that the coke enterprises strictly enforce the production limit, the local coke enterprise operating rate will fall from the current 85% to around 50%. It is estimated that the heating season will affect the local coke supply by 3.62 million tons and the daily average coke supply will decrease by about 30,000 tons. However, due to the recent increase in inventory levels of coking enterprises, some coke enterprises have reached 10 days or above. At present, the inventory of coke enterprises in Luliang area is about 860,000 tons. It still takes about 28 days for the inventory level of coke enterprises to be fully digested. Therefore, it is expected that the impact on short-term market supply will be limited.
However, according to the research feedback, the enthusiasm of the limited production of coke enterprises is still not high. Only after the coking enterprises actually face losses, they will actively limit production, relying solely on administrative production limits, and the implementation is difficult to achieve expectations. According to the current supply and demand situation, it is expected that the coke price will still have a downside of around RMB 100/ton at the end of this month.
(3) Raw material inventory
The raw material stocks of coking enterprises have fallen back this week. At present, the available days of coking coal are about one week. The high coal stocks of Jiao enterprise appeared in July-August this year, and the inventory level exceeded the usage of one month. At that time, the coal market was in a rising channel, and coking enterprises took the initiative to replenish stocks with high enthusiasm.
(4) Logistics and transportation
The coking enterprises supply mainly to North China, East China and Northeast China. Since this week, steel mills have been actively destocking, and coke procurement has slowed down. Some steel mills have requested to stop. At present, coking enterprises are mainly shipped by rail and motor transport, accounting for about half of each. The freight cost of steam coke to Rizhao area is 230 yuan/ton; the freight rate of coke for fire transportation is 170 yuan/ton, and the cost of two shorts is 50 yuan/ton; the freight for coke to Tianjin is 160 yuan/ton; 130 yuan / ton, plus a short fee.
(5) Product differentiation
At present, due to the large-scale trend of steel mill blast furnaces, the demand for top-loading coke is increased, and the top-loading first-stage coke is stronger than the secondary coke and high-sulfur coke. Up to now, the first-level coke has dropped by 350 yuan/ton, and the secondary coke has dropped by 550 yuan/ton.
(6) Environmental protection investment
The future environmental protection efforts tend to be strict. Before the end of the year, coking enterprises need to apply for a sewage permit; the construction of greenhouses and silos needs to be completed before the end of June next year.
(7) Effect of coke quality on coking time
In the coking time, the coke time is extended to 48 hours, and the coke quality is relatively small, but after the coking time is extended to 72 hours, the coke strength and other indicators will be significantly reduced.
(8) New production
Due to the recovery of the coke market this year, some zombie coking enterprises in the Luliang area resumed production during the year, with a total production capacity of about 2 million tons. In addition, Luliang and surrounding areas have an annual increase of about 5 million tons of coking capacity, and the coking capacity in the region has actually increased by about 7 million tons.
2. Lingshi area coal mine
(1) Capacity and production
The only open-pit coal mine in Lingshi area, which mainly produces high-sulfur fertilized coal, has high product bonding, ideal recovery and high ash content. The coal mine has an annual production capacity of 1.5 million tons. The production was suspended during the 19th National Congress. It was greatly affected by the safety incidents in the early stage and the safety incident. As of the end of September this year, the output was about 1 million tons. The normal coal production in a normal day is 5000-10000 tons.
(2) Customer group
Among the self-produced raw coal, 40%-50% is supplied to the self-prepared coal washing plant, and there are 4 subordinate coal washing plants with an annual washing capacity of 8.4 million tons (300+300+120+120). Other raw coal is exported to the coal washing plant in the surrounding area, and there are very few raw coals out of the province. Clean coal is mainly sold to surrounding areas and enterprises in Shandong and downstream of North China.
(3) Environmental protection
At present, the impact is not big, and it is necessary to sprinkle more water to avoid dust. At present, there is no greenhouse built in the stockpiling and the cloth is mainly covered. However, the environmental protection requirements must be added to the field shed.
(4) Sales
The current sales situation is general, the sales are all old orders since June this year. The raw coal stock was 300,000 tons, which was reduced compared with the inventory in September. During the period of the 19th National Congress, the inventory digest was not obvious. It is expected that there will still be room for price reduction in the later period. The sales of raw coal are mainly prepayments, and the repayments this year are better.
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