April 20, cloudy. Life is like a white pass, there is always a land to make you look up, there is always a scene that makes you dream, and time is always gone. Today's "Gu Yu", this is the last solar term in spring. When the rain is raining, the cold wave is gradually receding, the catkins are flying, and the cuckoo is falling into the night. This means that the cold wave weather is basically over and the temperature rises faster. Spring is getting farther and farther, can the market stop falling?
According to the spot business point feedback, the early trading was not active: First, the terminal customers were tightly funded, all of which were ready-to-use, with few large tonnage orders. Secondly, after yesterday’s low-priced “replenishmentâ€, the middlemen’s procurement rhythm Slowdown – both rigid and intermediate needs lack the conditions for an outbreak. Orders are less, and low prices are preferred. Throughout the morning, market trading volume has decreased compared with the same period of last year, and the phenomenon of billing below the mainstream price is more common. For example, there is a base price of rebar in the Zhongtian agent factory at 3,220 yuan / ton, and rusted qualified products are sold at 3,100 yuan / ton...
Focus today
Macro hotspot
1. In April, following the listing of the first batch of 4 single PPP asset securitization projects, the remaining 5 PPP asset securitization projects will also be launched in the near future. At the same time, the NDRC will continue to launch the second batch of PPP asset securitization projects, and the number of projects is not much different from the first batch.
2. The central bank: On Thursday, 40 billion 7 days, 20 billion 14 days and 20 billion 28 days reverse repurchase operations were carried out. The operation volume was unchanged from yesterday, and the winning bid rates were unchanged at 2.45%, 2.6% and 2.75% respectively. There were 20 billion reverse repurchases due on the day. According to industry insiders, it is difficult for financial fabrics to continue the loose state at the beginning of this month.
3. National Bureau of Statistics: In March 2017, the output of iron ore was 136,690,597 tons, which increased by 18% year-on-year. The national iron ore output in January-March was 2,981,090,110,000 tons, a cumulative increase of 15.9%.
Raw material
Billet: On the 20th, Tangshan billet fell 30 to 2690, and other markets rose by about 30. Early trading of finished products was acceptable, and some varieties rose slightly. However, after the increase, the transactions were not smooth, and the intraday decline, coupled with the weakening of the snails, these factors caused a greater impact on market confidence, and billet transactions were weak. At present, some bills in Tangshan and surrounding steel mills are subject to tax 2,690, Tangshan Xinda 2720, and the bare price of 2490. Driven by the rebound of Tangshan billet yesterday, other markets in the north have risen by about 30, and steel mill billets are mainly used for rolling mills.
Domestic mine: On the 20th, the domestic mining market was weak and stable. Yesterday, the general index rose 1.35 US dollars, the business wait and see attitude remains. Although the steel billet rose by 40 yesterday, but the high turnover was light, although the iron opening was slightly red, but continued to increase, there was no substantial boost to the domestic powder market. Yesterday, Shandong steel enterprises once again proposed a contract price of 15 yuan to the big mine, but this morning the big mine has not followed the downward adjustment. The recent plunge in the market has made the business mentality more cautious, and there are many markets with no price or no price. Some of the selected factories were affected by the fear of falling, and there were low-priced dumping behaviors; however, the price was lower than the psychological low of most merchants at this time, and those with low recognition of low-price shipments were withdrawn from the market. Recently, the market has fluctuated frequently, the price is lower every day, and the operation is difficult. Most traders can only wait for the market to stabilize and then enter the market. It is difficult to change the weak material, and the port stocks remain high. The two mountains are pressed on top of the domestic powder. In the short term, the price of domestically produced mines is bound to be under pressure.
Imported mines: On the 20th, the spot price of imported mines and ports was stable. Last night, the general index rose 1.35 US dollars, the current 62% Australian powder index is 65.15 US dollars / ton, the lump ore premium is 0.0155. Yesterday, relying on the mining platform to single-sell the price of the mine, the port borrowed rebound shipments, the transaction volume reached a new high for two weeks, but today's market has begun to weaken, the downstream material shipments are poor, even the iron one hour yesterday morning The gains have completely fallen back and re-raised at a new low; the miners have no willingness to pay for the goods and continue to let the goods go. In terms of long-term resources, the May PB powder plus block report index +0.3, block flat push; May full powder reported May index + 1.5 or so; recent block ore and low-grade powder sales are not good, market transactions are scarce. From the fundamental point of view, the high demand for high-inventory steel mills is low, and the second quarter will be the time for collective shipment. The black center is still in the finished steel. Although iron ore falls more, the risk is greater than that of steel. Carefully copy the bottom ore before the market stabilizes.
Steel spot
Zhongnan Building Materials: The snail night plate floats red, boosting the spot market. After the market opened in the morning, the merchants watched cautiously. The related varieties in the north rose first and then fell, causing the business mentality to entangle, the rising power of finished products was insufficient, and the snail fell sharply in the late afternoon. Breaking 2800 support, business confidence collapsed again, and the price of Fuzhou was lowered by about 20, and the turnover was sluggish. Looking at the market outlook, the billet fell again 30, the market is in a downturn, and it is expected that the price will continue to fall.
Central South Hot Roll: Today's futures opened with a strong shock, coupled with a slight improvement in yesterday's turnover, local low-end resources are mostly close to the high level, but considering the overall transaction is not obvious, the market price is once again concentrated to a low level. Considering that the current local total inventory is still at a relatively high level, the merchants' willingness to ship is still strong, but the current Lecong hot-roll price is relatively low in terms of price compared with Tianjin and Shanghai. Therefore, the local price decline may also be limited, so it is expected that the price of the hot coil will be dominated by a narrow range in the short term.
Zhongnan plate: The market opened today, the local plate price is weak, and the market knows that yesterday's futures and steel billets rebounded, but the local market trading situation has not improved, terminal demand continues to weaken, overall shipments are weak. The business mentality is poor, and the willingness to go to stocks is dominant. Due to insufficient rebound power, today's futures and steel billets are weakening, and the market mentality continues to loosen. Therefore, it is expected that the local plate price will continue to be weak in the short term.
Futures market
Today's rebar main contract 1710 closed 2889 rose 50, today's closing rose 1.76%, the highest intraday 2928, the lowest 2775, the settlement price of 2842, the volume of 2755486, the position reduced by 89,642. The trading volume in the intraday trading volume was significantly increased, and the volume of positions was increased. Considering the first rise and then fall in the intraday session, the market stopped falling and fell rapidly. The intraday high and low price volatility increased, considering that the spot price continued to weaken the operation, and the spot The transaction was not satisfactory. In the afternoon, the billet price will be adjusted back to 2,700 yuan/ton. The futures market will not have a big rebound. It is expected that the night snail will enter a wide fluctuation and fluctuate, paying attention to the above 2900 breakthrough and the lower 2850 support. . (The above operation is for reference only!) (Source: China Steel Network)
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