Cheng Ruihua visited Liu Kaixin, a professor and doctoral tutor at the School of Economics at Nankai University. The US subprime mortgage crisis started in February last year and has now evolved into a financial crisis that has swept the United States and affected the world. As a country that is actively integrating into the world economy and financial system, China naturally cannot afford to stay out of it. So, what impact will the US financial crisis have on China? Where will the Chinese economy go? With these questions, the reporter interviewed Liu Xiaoxin, a professor and doctoral tutor at the School of Economics of Nankai University.
An important pillar of the US economy is domestic consumption. Before the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, the United States continued to acquire products and services of other countries by exporting dollars. It also provided an important market for many countries, especially developing countries. With the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis and the financial crisis, American nationals’ confidence in the economy has shrunk, and consumer spending and consumer desires have continued to decline. In this regard, Liu Xiaoxin believes that this will certainly reduce the demand for foreign products, resulting in a decrease in US imports.
The United States is China's second largest trading partner. The impact of the transmission effect of the US financial crisis on China's foreign trade exports has now emerged. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, the proportion of the United States in China’s total import and export volume has dropped from 14.2% in August last year to 12.7% in August this year. Since foreign trade is an important part of national income, the continued decline in trade with the United States will also have a certain adverse impact on China's economic growth.
Among the products exported to the United States, labor-intensive products such as textiles, footwear and bottom-end daily necessities account for a considerable proportion. The main consumer groups of these products are the middle and low income groups of the United States. They suffered great losses during the financial crisis, which will certainly affect the export of these products to the United States to a large extent. At the same time, the export of these labor-intensive products in China mainly relies on price advantage to compete with other developing countries. Due to the weak dollar and the appreciation of the renminbi caused by the financial crisis, the price advantage of Chinese enterprises is not in place, and exports are further suppressed.
In addition, we cannot ignore that the majority of China's SMEs that have been closed down due to the impact of the US financial crisis are labor-intensive industries, which is one of the negative effects of the US financial crisis on China.
It should be said that the financial crisis in the United States has inhibited the growth of China's economy to some extent. On the other hand, due to the outbreak of the US financial crisis, the world's energy and resource prices have shown a downward trend under the influence of economic downturn and recession. China can take advantage of the world's energy and resource prices, which is a favorable opportunity to promote economic development.
The US financial crisis has already had a certain impact on China's economy, and this impact will continue for a certain period of time. So how can we eliminate the adverse effects of the financial crisis on our country? Liu Xiaoxin believes that this aspect depends on the time and extent of the recovery of the United States from the financial crisis. On the other hand, it also requires China to take measures to proactively solve various problems brought about by the financial crisis.
For the foreign trade export industry, we must first actively expand other overseas markets to compensate for the losses caused by the shrinking US market. At the same time, it is necessary to expand domestic demand and use domestic consumption to digest "excess" production capacity.
On the impact of the US financial crisis on China's foreign exchange reserves, on the one hand, we must optimize China's foreign exchange reserve structure and gradually reduce the proportion of US dollar assets to enhance the ability of China's foreign exchange reserves to resist risks and maintain value in the face of financial crisis and turmoil; On the one hand, we must accelerate the process of internationalization of the RMB. As China continues to grow stronger and integrate into the international financial environment and further internationalization of the renminbi, we can gain a certain voice in the world's major powers and gain the status of international settlement. . In fact, the international currency status of the US dollar will be shaken because people's confidence in the US dollar is no longer so firm, and the currency pattern has the opportunity to be re-arranged.
Flexible use of monetary policy to respond to emergencies. The US financial crisis was caused by the bursting of the real estate bubble, but the deeper reason is the virtualization of money, and the leverage of the economy led to the crisis caused by the socialization of financial risks. The loan interest rate floating policy adopted by the United States directly led to the trigger of the financial crisis. The United States raised interest rates 17 times in a row, causing subprime loan customers to fail to receive monthly payments and directly see the phenomenon of check-outs, which led to the financial crisis. We must take the lead and use monetary policy flexibly to deal with emergencies. At present, the state's series of stability and support policies for the stock market (single tax collection, pilot financing and securities lending policy will be piloted, etc.) and the collective rebound of real estate stocks are also reflected in relevant policies.
In addition, the regulatory authorities will continue to strengthen prudent supervision and services for financial institutions, urge financial institutions to strengthen their own risk management, improve their ability to resist risks, and maintain the normal order of the capital market.
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