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Original title: Capital fabrics continue to be ample
â–¡ reporter Wang Hui
After the New Year's Day holiday, in the context of the net return of the open market operation for two consecutive trading days, the market capital of the market continued to maintain a generally plentiful operating pattern on Wednesday, and the short-term capital price continued to fall significantly. Analysts said that after a smooth multi-year, the overall face of funds in the first half of January was relatively loose, and the continuous net return of the open market was limited. While short-term liquidity is expected to remain plentiful, the focus of the market is still focused on the collection of tax revenue in the fourth quarter of 2016 and the disturbance of the Spring Festival factor at the end of this month.
Net return does not hinder the funds
On the 4th, the central bank launched a 10-day, 10-billion-day, 14-day reverse repurchase operation with interest rate bidding. The winning bid rate remained unchanged at 2.25% and 2.40%. Statistics show that on the open market on Wednesday, a total of 160 billion yuan reversed the repurchase due, and the central bank realized a net return of 140 billion yuan from a single day. On the first trading day of 2017 (January 3), the open market net withdrawal of funds was 155 billion yuan. As a result, the central bank’s net withdrawal of funds reached 295 billion yuan on the 3rd and 4th.
Although the central bank continued to recover funds from the open market on Wednesday, the inter-bank funds were still generally plentiful, and the continued net return of the open market did not exert significant pressure on the funds. According to WIND data, the weighted average interest rates (deposit institutions) of pledged repo on the 4th day of the bank, 7 days, 14 days and 1 month are 2.10%, 2.30%, 2.48% and 3.63% respectively. Compared with the previous trading day, except for the one-month maturity category, which rose by 13 basis points, the interest rates of other varieties fell across the board. Among them, the overnight varieties fell by 3 basis points, the 7-day varieties fell sharply by 37 basis points, and the 14-day varieties decreased by 3 basis points.
Traders said that on Wednesday, the inter-bank market funds continued to be ample. The overnight and seven-day pledge-style repo showed a significant decrease in the short-term liquidity supply, indicating a one-month long holiday of the Spring Festival. Although the supply of funds is still relatively small, the interest rate of funds has also risen, but the demand has not increased significantly. On the whole, after a smooth multi-year, the funds on the first two trading days of this week will be relaxed as a whole, and the net return of the open market will not have much impact on the funds.
Short-term is still warm
Market participants pointed out that after the funds have steadily crossed 2016, the market capital supply and demand and sentiment level have improved significantly. In the case of a net return for two consecutive days in the open market, it is reasonable to continue to maintain ample lenient funds in the past two trading days. Among them. Although the follow-up of the tax collection in the fourth quarter of 2016 may bring some negative disturbance to the capital, it is expected that the open market operation will also respond. On the whole, while the short-term fund base is expected to continue the warmth, the market focus is expected to continue to shift to the eve of the Spring Festival in mid-to-late January.
On the whole, short-term funding will be expected to usher in a short period of easy time, and the liquidity situation in the opening year of 2017 is expected to be generally stable. However, after entering mid-January, the pace of the organization's Spring Festival payment will gradually accelerate, and liquidity demand will begin to enter the seasonal peak period in the second half of next week.
On the other hand, after the severe test of the end of December 2016, some market participants have begun to correct the previously pessimistic expectations for the funds in the first two or three weeks before the Spring Festival. Hu Yuexiao, chief analyst of the Shanghai Securities Research Institute, said that after the rare decline in the bond market in the fourth quarter, institutional investment leverage has fallen a lot; in addition, the impact of seasonal factors in the Spring Festival (in fact, the long-term financial needs management) is expected to be much more than the end of the year. The impact of settlement-type funds is weak. In view of the escort factors of the central bank's liquidity regulation, the demand for the money market may be much lower than that before New Year's Day. Overall, although the pre-holiday funds still need further observation and tracking, the overall funding situation may be slightly better than market expectations.
Enter [Sina Finance and Economics Unit] Discussion
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