Gold Investment crude oil network (http://energy.cngold.org/) on November 28th, due to Saudi Arabia’s absence from the OPEC meeting last Friday, the oil price fell by nearly 4%, but the oil price closed up, one for For the first time in the month, the US dollar index fell to a high level. Spot gold hit a nine-month low. The three major US stock indexes continued their upward trend after the US election. The S&P 500 index has hit a record high for the seventh time, and the yuan has continued to hit an eight-year low against the US dollar.
Saudi Arabia’s powerful words made oil prices fall 4% last week, and this week’s upcoming OPEC meeting and non-agricultural data, the exciting moment is finally coming, given the current specific share of the oil-producing countries has not yet been stated, the differences remain Whether OPEC can reach a frozen production agreement will also determine the ups and downs of oil prices. In addition, the non-agricultural axis will be ready to go, and the oil market will face a bloody storm.
The OPEC meeting is just around the corner, and the oil-producing countries are dead inside.
Saudi Arabia: The long-awaited OPEC frozen production meeting is finally going to be held on Wednesday, but the current domestic oil production is still in existence. Saudi Arabia refused to participate in a technical meeting today. Because Saudi Arabia hopes that OPEC will reach a consensus first, which will be reached on Wednesday. The production reduction agreement adds a lot of variables.
Iraq: Saudi Arabia hopes that all OPEC members except Libya and Nigeria will contribute to this plan. That is to say, they once again thrown a 'baton' to Iraq. The country does not mean to agree to freeze production at the lowest level. Of course, it is better to cut production by 4% to 4.5%.
Iran: According to the Iranian Ministry of Energy official website SHANA news, the country's oil minister is optimistic about the OPEC meeting held this week, that OPEC can reach a production reduction agreement this time to curb global oversupply, and said Iran will announce its own production limit statement.
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Comments: Due to uncertainty about whether OPEC will reach a frozen production agreement, the current oil price is at the level of 45 US dollars, and the internal contradictions in oil-producing countries still exist. If the talks do not reach an agreement, the oil price may fall to 40 US dollars; but the market believes that the frozen production is reached. The probability is high, and the price of oil will be boosted by then, but at the same time, the US shale oil will rise, and the price of oil will soar. It is unlikely to be in the range of 50-55 US dollars.
Non-agricultural pressure shaft drama is not to be missed
The 2016 non-agricultural ultimate battle is expected to cause a big storm. As the OPEC meeting just ended on Wednesday, the market has not yet had time to digest and ushered in non-agricultural data. Investors still need to focus on it.
A review of the former situation: Friday (November 4) According to US data, the increase of non-agricultural population in October was 161,000, which was less than market expectations. However, the wage growth rate reached a seven-year high, a bearish dollar and a bullish gold and silver oil. The US non-agricultural employment growth rate in October was less than expected, but it still performed well, and the unemployment rate fell as expected, and the salary data was good.
Outlook for the market outlook: Friday (December 2) 21:30 market will usher in the US non-agricultural report in November, foreign media survey is expected to increase the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States in November after the increase of 180,000 people, the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.9 %constant.
Non-agricultural pressure shaft drama is extremely exciting. When OPEC encounters heavy non-agricultural, where should oil prices go, crude oil investors should not miss it.
Today's focus is on 22:00 European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's speech, and crude oil investors should also focus on news about the frozen production in oil-producing countries.
Last week's market review:
First, the crude oil market
Oil prices fell sharply last Friday, and this temporary meeting was completely cancelled because Saudi Arabia will not participate in today's non-OPEC meetings with Russia. Oil prices continued to fall after the news came out, but the oil weekly still recorded a small increase for the first time in a month.
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US WTI crude oil January futures closed down $1.90, or 3.96%, to $46.06 per barrel on Friday (November 25), down 0.86% in the week and hitting a low of $45.58 per barrel in intraday trading;
Brent crude January futures closed down $1.76, or 3.59%, at $47.24 a barrel, up 0.55% during the week and hitting a low of $46.85 a barrel.
Second, the precious metal market
Last Friday, gold futures closed at a low of 9 months. The December gold futures on the New York Stock Exchange closed down 10.30 US dollars, down 0.9%, to 1179.00 US dollars / ounce, the lowest closing price since the first week of February. 2.3%, for the fourth consecutive week of decline, 3.67%.
Spot gold rebounded on Friday (November 24) after hitting a nine-and-a-half-month low. The lowest intraday price was $117.09 per ounce, the highest rose to $1193.21 per ounce to close at $1182.88 per ounce, down 0.32. The dollar fell by 0.03%.
Third, the foreign exchange market
Last Friday, the dollar fell against the major currencies in a light trade as investors took profits after the dollar reached a 14-year high. At the end of the session, the US dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against a trade-weighted basket of six other major currencies, fell 0.28% to 101.48.
The renminbi rose to a new low of more than eight years against the US dollar; the onshore renminbi against the US dollar closed at 6.9151 on Friday at 16:30, up 38 basis points from the previous trading day. On the last trading day of last week, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was adjusted to 83 basis points to 6.9168, which was lowered for the third consecutive day and hit a new low of more than 8 years.
Fourth, the stock market
The US stock market closed early on Black Friday after Thanksgiving, and the deal was light. The three major stock indexes rose for the third week and continued the upward trend after the US election. The S&P 500 index has closed its record closing high for the seventh time since November 8.
Global Financial Market Trading Reminder:
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On Monday (November 28), during the Asian session, investors focused on the trend of various varieties' opening, and the performance of Chinese data from the weekend may have an impact on the opening trend of various varieties in the morning. Since then, investors have focused on the performance of the Chinese market.
During European time, economic data and fundamental events were scarce. Investors paid little attention to the Italian data, and the market trend tends to be more technically oriented.
In New York time, on the data side, investors are concerned about the impact of the Dallas Fed Business Activity Index. In addition, at 22 o'clock in Beijing time, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will also deliver a speech, investors should also pay close attention. In addition, investors return from the Thanksgiving holiday, investors should also pay close attention to the trend of US stocks and oil prices to determine the direction of market sentiment.
Last week (November 21-26), the US dollar hit a new high, gold fell 2%, and oil prices also fell 4% due to Saudi Arabia. This week, the market will usher in the US non-farm report and OPEC meeting in November. There is no doubt that the OPEC meeting will be the focus of the market. At present, the attitudes of various countries are constantly changing. The discussions on the quotas of frozen production agreements have experienced many twists and turns. Whether or not to draw a perfect period will still be doubtful. Please also pay attention to the dynamics of oil-producing countries.
Monday key: Draghi speaks
At 22:00 Beijing time, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi made an introductory statement at the quarterly hearing of the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee.
On November 21, Draghi publicly stated that he has promised to maintain the sustainability level of monetary easing to ensure that inflation reaches below or close to 2% in the medium term.
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Tuesday key: US GDP revision, Dudley speech, API
Focusing on the US third-quarter GDP revision is expected to cause short-term fluctuations in the US dollar. Given that the market has fully reflected the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations, it is expected that even if the data is brilliant, the boost to the US dollar will be relatively short-lived.
At 21:15 Beijing time, William Dudley, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank of New York, delivered a speech on the theme "The economic growth opportunity of Puerto Rico and the lessons learned by the American municipality facing a similar crisis." The market is expected to have limited impact.
Pay attention to the API crude oil inventory data to be released at 05:30 the next day. If the inventory increases significantly, it will drag down the oil price.
Keys on Wednesday: OPEC meeting, ADP data, EIA inventory
1. OPEC will meet on November 30 to coordinate production cuts. Russia, which is not an OPEC oil producer, may also participate, but there are still differences within OPEC about which countries should cut production and reduce production. Most analysts believe that some form of production reduction agreement will be reached, but whether the strength is enough to support oil prices is still uncertain.
The market expects that the OPEC meeting on November 30 will reaffirm its commitment to maintain production below 33 million barrels per day. During the meeting, OPEC is expected to reach an agreement even for face.
2. EIA crude oil inventory data is expected to cause large fluctuations in oil prices. In addition, investors should also pay attention to the OPEC meeting news, the impact of stocks will be overshadowed by OPEC.
3. ADP employment data is often seen as a weathervane for non-agricultural employment reports. If the ADP employment data is brilliant, it will boost the market's optimism about Friday's non-agricultural data.
Thursday key: national PMI
Concerned about the impact of multinational PMI on the renminbi and the Australian dollar, the UK manufacturing PMI will also bring volatility to the pound. The impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI on the dollar in November is even worse than the final value of the Markit manufacturing PMI in November.
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Friday key: non-agricultural data
This week, the US non-agricultural report was held in November. The foreign media survey expects that the non-agricultural employment in the US will increase by 180,000 in November, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9%.
Marvin Loh, senior global market strategist at BNY Mellon, said that unless the US employment data is bleak this week, everything else will prompt the Fed to act. Even if the employment data is particularly weak, the impact may be greatly reduced, as the transitional data will be revised.
Saturday key: oil drilling
02:00 US total oil drilling in the week of December 2, last Thursday (November 24) According to oil clothing Baker Hughes data, the number of US oil drilling has increased by three, and the largest increase in seven months, The long-term pressure on crude oil prices has increased.
Judging from the recent changes in the number of oil drillings in the United States, the number of rigs in the United States is generally recovering, indicating that US crude oil production may become active. In general, oil drilling does not have a very direct impact on oil prices, which is basically a pressure on oil prices in the long run.
Key to Sunday: Italian referendum
On December 4th Italy held a referendum on constitutional reform. The latest polls show that Italian voters will oppose constitutional reforms. If the constitutional failure fails, the support rate of the “five-star sports party†of the populist party will increase greatly, and one of the main plans of the party is to promote Italy’s “de-referendumâ€. This will lead to increased risk aversion and investors selling risky assets.
Many heavy data released this week, non-agricultural, OPEC conferences and Italian referendums are expected to bomb the financial market, and investors are also prepared to prepare in advance.
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Focus on data today:
17:00 Italy Istat Consumer Confidence Index for November
17:00 Eurozone October M3 annual rate (%)
22:00 European Central Bank President Della made an introductory statement based on the quarterly hearing of the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee.
23:30 US Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for November
23:00 US Dallas Fed Finished Goods Price Index
23:00 US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Output Index in November
Pay attention to mobile phone gold investment crude oil (http://m.cngold.org/energy/), the latest news on oil price adjustment is always available.
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