Reserves rounds out effectively reduce the spread of cotton inside and outside, help to enhance the international competitiveness of domestic textile enterprises; textile and apparel exports has entered the peak season, coupled with the reduced VAT cotton, cotton demand is expected to increase the relative concentration began to appear from July, The transaction rate of reserve cotton is expected to rise further; cotton resources are relatively limited in the latter part of the year, and cotton production is expected to be higher in the new year, which is significantly higher than the expected increase in consumption, cotton prices are near-strong and weak; the international economy is basically improving, and the financial situation as a whole is tightening; The international economy is basically improving, the financial situation as a whole is tightening; the domestic economic climate is stabilizing, and financial supervision is becoming stronger.
I. Late cotton market forecast
(1) The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has narrowed, and the competitiveness of textile enterprises has increased.
Before the current reserve cotton round, the average price difference between domestic and foreign cotton was 1,130 yuan / ton, the highest reached 1975 yuan / ton. Since the reserve cotton round on March 6, the average price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is 393 yuan / ton, the highest is 747 yuan / ton. The narrowing of the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has increased the competitiveness of domestic textile enterprises. Taking 32 carded yarns as an example, from October 2016 to February 2017, domestic yarn prices were higher than most major countries such as India, Vietnam and Indonesia. Since the reserve cotton round, domestic yarn prices have been lower than these countries. According to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in April 2017, China's textile and apparel exports amounted to US$21.611 billion, an increase of 7.96% from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 3.6%.
(2) The export season of textiles and clothing came, and the transaction rate of reserve cotton stabilized and rebounded.
1. The peak season for textile and apparel exports will increase the demand for cotton. According to the national cotton market monitoring system survey, as of the beginning of June, the national industrial inventory decreased, and the textile enterprises' purchasing intentions for raw cotton increased significantly. Historical data shows that the export season of textiles and clothing is from May to September every year. Although the export data in May has not yet been announced, but for many years, the regularity of the peak season is strong, and the export volume generally starts to increase sharply from May. Most of the peaks appear in August, which is conducive to the smooth operation of the yarn, cloth and clothing industry chain. Cotton demand for textile companies will remain active.
2. The reserve cotton transaction rate is expected to increase further after it stabilizes. In late May, the reserve rate of reserve cotton fell, and then rebounded and stabilized. Since China's cotton value-added tax will fall from 13% to 11% from July 1, it is expected that most textile companies will try to control the amount of cotton purchases in June, and procurement from July may be relatively concentrated. Before the new cotton market, reserve cotton is the main source of domestic cotton supply, and the transaction rate is expected to further increase. (3) Cotton prices are near-strong and weak, and the macro economy is both happy and worried. 1. The increase in cotton production in the new year is expected to be higher. At present, cotton planting in major cotton producing countries around the world is nearing completion, the weather is basically normal, cotton is growing well, and cotton production in the new year is expected to be higher. According to the latest global cotton production and demand forecast released by the US Department of Agriculture, the global cotton planting area in 2017/18 was 482 million mu, an increase of 9.1% year-on-year and 1.0% quarter-on-quarter; the output was 24.98 million tons, an increase of 8% year-on-year. 1.4%. However, before the cotton picking, whether the output can reach the above level depends on the weather conditions, there is still uncertainty.
2. The expected increase in cotton consumption in the new year is not large. According to the World Bank's latest Global Economic Outlook, the global economic growth rate will increase from 2.4% in 2016 to 2.7% in 2017, which will help stimulate the growth of textile and apparel consumption. In addition, starting in July, both China and India will implement new commodity tax rates. China will reduce cotton value-added tax, which will help stimulate cotton consumption growth; India will implement a national unified Goods and Services Tax (GST), eliminating the phenomenon of double taxation of cotton and textiles, and helping to promote cotton and textile consumption growth in an all-round way. According to the US Department of Agriculture forecast, global cotton consumption in 2017/18 was 25.37 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%.
3, cotton prices are near strong and weak. Cotton prices at home and abroad are in a near-strong and far-weak pattern. At the end of the year, global spot resources were relatively limited. Compared with foreign markets, domestic market supply was tight. In the new year, global cotton increased significantly, and domestic production increased significantly less than that of foreign countries; global cotton consumption in the new year did not increase much. Due to the different supply and demand conditions, the international market is far stronger than the domestic market. At present, Zhengmou futures contract price difference between the recent month and the distant month is more than 200 yuan / ton, ICE cotton futures price difference between the recent month and the distant month is more than 2 cents / lb. It is expected that in the new annual production and the domestic and foreign policy and economic situation will not undergo major changes, the near-strong and far-weak pattern will continue until the end of the year.
4. The international economy is basically improving, the financial situation as a whole is tightening; the domestic economic prosperity is stabilizing, and financial supervision is becoming stronger. Internationally, in May, JPMorgan Chase's global comprehensive PMI was 53.7, which was basically the same as the previous two-year high. JPMorgan's global manufacturing PMI was 52.6, which was basically the same. In May, the manufacturing PMIs of the United States, Japan and the Eurozone were 54.9, 53.1 and 57.0, respectively, an increase of 0.1, 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points respectively. The Baltic Dry Index rose by 57.0% year-on-year and 44.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. CRB commodity spot price index rose 4.1 percent, up 0.7 percentage points. On June 15, the Fed raised the discount rate by 25 basis points to 1.75%, and maintained that the US growth forecast for 2018 is unchanged at 2.1%. It is expected that the contract will begin to shrink in 2017. On the domestic front, the economic prosperity has stabilized, SMEs have improved, consumer goods retail sales have remained stable, and import and export trade has risen steadily. The World Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for China's economic growth this year to 6.7%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous period. Domestic fixed asset investment continued to fall, real estate investment growth slowed down, commercial housing sales slowed down, financial markets were generally stable, and supervision was still slowly strengthening. M1 and M2 growth rates all declined slightly. Domestic financial supervision continued and the intensity strengthened; the manufacturing recovery showed signs of weakness.
Second, domestic cotton production and sales forecast
Domestic cotton spot market operated smoothly and yarn products to maintain international competitiveness, active demand for cotton, imported by enterprises enthusiasm high, imports, consumption increased slightly adjusted. After adjustment, the 2016 domestic cotton ending stocks were 8.377 million tons, an increase of 29,000 tons from the previous month. The inventory consumption ratio was 107.97, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month and a decrease of 28 percentage points year-on-year. The 2017 cotton production, consumption, imports, ending stocks and inventory consumption ratios were also adjusted accordingly.
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